Dealt vs Opened vs 3-Bet Ranges

Real ranges fold low cards and keep the big suited ones. Almost every frequency bends.

PLO hand-class frequencies by range

How often a dealt, opened, or 3-bet hand holds each class. ×N compares each range to dealt.

A hand that holds…DealtBTN openBB 3-bet
Flush drawtwo or more spades on K♠9♠6♥21.4%23.4% ×1.126.8% ×1.3
Made flushtwo or more spades on K♠9♠6♠18.0%20.0% ×1.124.0% ×1.3
Straight (Q + J)at least one queen and one jack on K♠T♥9♦7.2%9.4% ×1.39.4% ×1.3
Straight (A + K)at least one ace and one king on Q♠J♥T♦7.2%15.1% ×2.125.5% ×3.6
Straight (2 + 4)at least one deuce and one four on A♠5♥3♦7.2%1.6% ×0.230.59% ×0.08
Seta pocket pair matching the board on J♠7♥2♦4.4%4.7% ×1.14.4% ×0.98
Pocket acestwo or more aces on J♠7♥2♦2.9%5.7% ×2.027.2% ×9.4
Pocket kingstwo or more kings on J♠7♥2♦2.9%5.7% ×2.013.2% ×4.6
Pocket queenstwo or more queens on J♠7♥2♦2.9%5.5% ×1.97.5% ×2.6
Flush draw, high flush cardstwo or more hearts on A♥Q♥6♠21.4%21.1% ×0.9921.5% ×1.0
Flush draw, low flush cardstwo or more hearts on 7♥5♥K♠21.4%25.1% ×1.231.7% ×1.5

Same draw odds, different range

A random hand holds a flush draw the same 21.4% of the time on both flops. The played ranges disagree.

High flush cards
Dealt 21.4%
BTN open 21.1%
BB 3-bet vs BTN 21.5%
Low flush cards
Dealt 21.4%
BTN open 25.1%
BB 3-bet vs BTN 31.7%

Played ranges keep big suited cards, so a flush draw turns up more often than the dealt 21.4%. How much more depends on which cards of the suit are on the board. With low flush cards the 3-bettor holds one 31.7% of the time, ×1.5 the dealt rate. With the ace and queen of the suit on board it drops to 21.5%: those two cards block the big suited combos that carry most of its flush draws.

Methodology

The played ranges come from a 6-max 100bb PLO4 preflop solve, a GTO solver's preflop strategy.

  • Dealt - every starting hand, counted equally.
  • BTN open - the hands the button opens for a raise, about 48.6% of all deals.
  • BB 3-bet - the hands the big blind 3-bets against that button open, about 9.4% of all deals.
  • Each hand is weighted by how often the range actually plays it, then the percentages are counted exactly over all 270,725 4-card combos. No simulation.
  • On a board, any hand using one of the shown cards is removed first, so the percentages cover only the hands still possible.